FCSL WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 14TH JUNE, 2019:
Foreign Direct Investment into Africa increased by 11% in 2018:
According to the World Investment report that indicated that the global FDI has decline for three consecutive years, which represent its lowest level since the Financial Crisis, as 2018 global FDI’s decline to $1.3 trillion from $1.5 trillion recorded in year 2017. However the African region did resist this trend, as the global funding invested within the region for year 2018, was estimated at about $46 billion, which was 11% higher than the inflow recorded in the previous year, while the influencing factor was pointed to the reduced barriers of cross-border trade and affordable access to commodities. The expected associated growth from the increased inflows into the region would be in the area of technology and transferred skill. Read More
FCSL WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 7TH JUNE, 2019:
Nigeria Projected GDP Outlook for 2019 Revised Downwards to 2.1% by World Bank:
The Country’s estimated Gross Domestic Product growth as forecasted by World Bank, for year 2019 that stood at 2.2% initially , has now being reviewed downwards to 2.1% for same year, this review was fueled by continuous foreign exchange constraints, Oil Production cut that was influenced by OPEC and the non-existence of reforms that could have spurred productivity. The Bank stated that the anticipated Oil sector recovery has been hampered by policy uncertainty that has hindered new capacity investment and this has weakened the government revenue generation as well. The elevated Nonperforming Loan figures among the Banking Sector of exporting countries within the sub-Sarah African Countries, was highlighted to have restrained growth and compressed export revenues that has resulted in impaired private sector balance sheets. The World Bank in its revised projection report has forecasted Nigeria’s GDP to remain stable for year 2020 while for year 2021 the projected figure has been benchmarked at 2.4%. Read More:
FCSL WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 31ST MAY, 2019:
Nonperforming loan on a Quarter on Quarter basis decline by 6.47%
According to the National Bureau of Statistics quarter one 2019 Banking sectors data, which reveal that the quarter on quarter Nonperforming loan amount did decrease by 6.47% from N1.792 trillion to N1.677 trillion, while on a year on year basis, the Nonperforming loan amount did decline further by 23.42% from N2.189 trillion to N1.677 trillion. While the Gross loan amount on a quarterly basis increase by 0.83%, from N15.354 trillion recorded in Q4 of 2018 to N15.480 trillion recorded in Q1 of 2019, while on a yearly basis the Gross loan amount did decline by 2.22% from N15.831 trillion recorded in Q1 of 2018 to N15.480 trillion recorded in Q1 of 2019. As for the Net loan amount the Quarterly loan amount did increase by 1.30% and yearly, net loan amount did decrease by 0.78%. The Banking sectorial report also gave an insight to credit facility allocated to the private sector for the period under review, wherein the Oil & Gas and Manufacturing sector both were allocated N3.49 trillion and N2.23 trillion respectively. Also other component of the report highlighted the level of transaction executed through electronic medium, as the Electronic Payment Platforms accounted for 557,083,712 volume of transaction that was valued at N34.02 trillion for the first quarter of 2019, while NIBSS Instant Payment had the highest level of transaction for the period under review, as it recorded 232,816,102 volume of transactions valued at N24.17 trillion. Read More:
FCSL WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 26TH APRIL, 2019:
Manufacturing Sector PMI for April stood at 57.7 Point:
The Month of April, 2019 Purchasing Manufacturing Index stood at 57.7 point, which translate to an expansion in the manufacturing sector for the twenty-fifth consecutive month. The Manufacturing index which is made of 14 subsector, which had 2 subsector from the 14, recording a decline for the current period, which were; primary metal subsectors and paper products subsectors, while the remaining 12 subsectors recorded an increase for the current period. For the Manufacturing PMI, its Production level stood at 58.8 index point for the current period compared to 58.3 index point recorded for the previous period, the New Orders manufacturing index stood at 57.2 for the current period compared to previous period index point that stood at 56.7, Supplier Delivery Time, according to the manufacturing suppliers delivery time index, which stood at 58.1 point for the month of April, as against 57.5 index point recorded in the preceding month, while the Employment level reported a PMI of 57.0 for the month of April, as against 58.4 point reported in the month of March and the Raw material inventories for the month recorded a growth on its PMI, as it stood at 57.5 points for the current period compared to 57.1 index point recorded in the preceding period. While according to the non-manufacturing PMI for the month of April, 2019, stood at 58.7 points, for the twenty-fourth consecutive period, while all the non-manufacturing PMI subsectors recorded a growth for the period. Read More:
FCSL WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 1ST MARCH, 2019
Nigeria Total trade declined by 5.1% in Q4 of 2018
The country’s Total Merchandise trade for Q4 of 2018 recorded a faint contraction for the period under review compared to the prior quarter, however the current period was much higher compared to previous year period. The current quarter total trade stood at N8,606 Billion as against N9,066.9 Billion recorded in quarter 3 of 2018, this represent a 5.1% decline recorded on a Quarter on- Quarter basis, while a 42.9% increase was recorded on a year-on-year basis. According to the import components of the total trade, which stood at N3,582.3 Billion, the Imports of Machinery & Transport Equipment accounted for 41.4 % of the total import trade, followed by Mineral Fuel that accounted for 23.2%, Chemical & Related Products accounted for 11.1%, while Food and Live animals accounted for 9.70% and Manufacturing goods accounted for 7.98% of the total import respectively. While the export components stood at N5,023.7 Billion, the export of Crude Oil accounted for 84.2% of the total export trade, followed by other oil products that accounted for 11.2% of the total exports, while Non-oil products accounted for 4.6% of the total exports trade. The country’s aggregate total trade for year 2018, stood at N32,265 Billion, which represent a 39.3% increase.
Manufacturing PMI for January stood at 57.1 index points: Read More
FCSL WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 22nd February, 2019
FG earned N298.01BN as VAT for Q4 of 2018
According to the Sectorial Distribution data, Value Added Tax recorded the sum of N298.01bn for Q4 of 2018 as against N273.50bn Value Added Tax recorded for Q3 of 2018, as such Quarter – on – Quarter growth basis VAT recorded a 8.96% growth while on a Year-on-Year basis the growth recorded was 17.28%. The Other Manufacturing sector, generated a VAT of N28.82bn, Professional Services and commercial generated a VAT of N24.12bn, Trading generated a VAT of N16.02bn, all in a descending order. While sectors according to ascending other were: Mining generated a VAT of N35.75m, Pharmaceutical, Soaps & Toiletries and Chemical generated VAT of N209.33m and Paints & Allied Industries generated VAT of N258.39m. According to the aggregated VAT report for Q4 of 2018, the sum of N138.42bn was attributed to Non-Import VAT generated domestically while the N47.89bn was attributed to Non- Import VAT generated internationally.
Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursed the sum of N649.19bn
The sum of N649.19bn was disbursed among the different tiers of government in the month of January 2019, according to the breakdown of the aggregate sum is as follows: the sum of N547.46BN was disbursed from Statutory Account, N100.76bn was disbursed from Value Added Tax and the sum of N0.976.53mn from exchange differences. The Federal Government collected a total of N270.17bn, while the State Government also got N178.04bn and Local Government received a sum of N133.83bn. The oil producing state got an additional N45.36bn allocation. While the Government collection agencies shared N4.69bn, N4.04bn, and N8.04bn respectively as revenue collection cost. Read More: FCSL Weekly Report FEBRUARY 22ND, 2019
FCSL WEEKLY STOCK PICK-25-02-2019
FCSL WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 15th February, 2019
January, 2019 CPI stands at 11.37%
The consumer price Index for the month of January, 2019 recorded an increase of 11.37% on a year-on-year basis, the January, 2019 inflation index represent a 0.07 point decrease from previous month Inflation Index of 11. 44% for December, 2018, while on a monthly basis, headline inflation index increased at the same rate of the previous month, which was 0.74%. Also for the current period all the Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) recorded an increase that resulted in the headline index. Food Index: The composite food index for the month of January, 2019 recorded an increase of 13.51%, as against 13.56% recorded in December, 2018, the increase in the food index is attributed to increase in the following food items of : Fish, Vegetables, Bread and cereals, Vegetables, Meat, Fruits, Potatoes, yam and other tubers, oils and fats, soft drinks. While on a monthly basis the index rose by 0.83% in January as against 0.81% increase recorded in December, 2018. Core Inflation: This sub-index recorded an increase of 9.9% for the month of January, 2019 as against 9.8% recorded in December, 2018, while on a monthly basis the core sub-index rose by 0.81% for the month under review as against 0.50% reported in December, 2018. The increase recorded in this sub-index was attributed to increase in the prices of Domestic services and household services, Tobacco, major household appliances whether electronic or not, Medical and Dental services, Garments, Narcotics, Cleaning, repair and hire of clothing, Carpet and other floorings. Read more:
FCSL WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 8th February, 2019
FG recorded N910bn fiscal deficit in three months — CBN
The Federal Government recorded a fiscal deficit of N910.41bn in the 4th quarter of 2018, the Central Bank of Nigeria revealed in its latest economic report. As reported, the Federally-collected revenue, was N2.41tn, for the 4th quarter of 2018, was 27.4 per cent lower than the estimated revenue and 4.8 per cent lower than the receipts in the preceding quarter, respectively. The return variance was attributed to revenue shortfalls from both oil and non-oil revenue in the reviewed quarter. The Federal Government estimated retained revenue and total expenditures were N916.44bn and N1.826tn, respectively, resulting in an estimated deficit of N910.41bn for the fourth quarter of 2018.” Read More: PUNCH
U.S. trade deficit narrows in November as imports decline- Read More:FCSL Weekly Report FEBRUARY 08TH, 2019
FCSL WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 1st February, 2019
MANUFACTURING PMI FOR JANUARY STOOD AT 58.5 INDEX POINTS:
The month of January 2019, manufacturing PMI index point stood at 58.5 point, this is an expansionary indicator in the manufacturing sector for the twenty-second consecutive month. Although the month index recorded an expansion, it was however at a lower rate when compared to the previous month index. The component of the Manufacturing PMI, which are Production Level: its index stood at 59.3 points for the month under review, New orders: had its index grew to 58.9 points for the month under review, Supplies Delivery Time: has its index stood at 58.3 points, this indicate a slow rate of growth when compared with previous month. While Employment Level stood at 56.4 index point for the month of January and Raw Materials inventories grew to 59.9 index point, although at a slower rate. While the Non- Manufacturing PMI for the month of January stood at 60.1 index point, although the index expanded for the month, it was however at a slower rate. The component of the Non-Manufacturing PMI, which are Business Activity: The Non-Manufacturing Business activity Index stood at 61.7 index point as at January, 2019, although it’s recorded a growth for the period under review however this was at a slow pace, New Orders: The Non- Manufacturing New order index for the month of January, 2019 stood at 60.2, Employment Level: The Non-Manufacturing employment level index stood at 57.7 point and the Inventory Level: The Non-Manufacturing Inventory Level index for the month of January, 2019 stood at 60.6 point.
U.S. Job Gains Largest in 11 months; Unemployment Rate Rises: Read More
FCSL WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 25TH JANUARY, 2019
MPC VOTE TO RETAIN RATES:
The Monetary Policy Committee held its first meeting for 2019 fiscal year, wherein it acknowledged the resurgence of moderate inflationary pressure and possible threats to the appreciation in the country’s external reserve due to declining crude oil prices, the committee also highlighted the growing concerns surrounding slowdown in the global economic activity that has been an off root from the going trade tensions. Upon much consideration of potential risk confronting the economy, inclusive of global and domestic Inflationary pressures that have intensified the risk of currency depreciation, as such the committee did not vote for rate easing option, while a rate tightening option was discarded so has not to have a relapse on some earlier gains achieved. In view of the above, the committee had 11 of its members voting to retaining the MPC parameters at its current level, which are as follows: I. Retain the MPR at 14 per cent; II. Retain the asymmetric corridor of +200/-500 basis points around the MPR; III. Retain the CRR at 22.5 per cent; and IV. Retain the Liquidity Ratio at 30 per cent.
CHINA SAYS WILL STEP UP FISCAL SPENDING THIS YEAR TO SUPPORT ECONOMY: Read More
FCSL WEEKLY MARKET REPORT 18TH JANUARY, 2019
Consumer Price Index Rise To 11.44%
Consumer price Index for the month of December, 2018 increased by 11.44% on year on year basis, which represent a 1.4% increase compared to the previous month of November, 2018 Inflation index of 11.28%, while monthly inflation index reflect, an appreciation of 0.74% when compared to November, 2018 monthly inflation index. The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending December 2018 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 12.10 percent, showing 0.31 percent point from 12.41 percent recorded in November 2018. The Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose all inched higher, which resulted in higher Headline index. Urban CPI increased by 1.03% on a year on year basis, the Urban CPI was 11.73% in December, 2018 compared to 11.61% recorded in November, 2018. Consumer Price Index by demography for all items on a year on year basis had Bayelsa state having the highest inflation index for December, 2018, which stood at 13.32% followed by Zamfara State, which was 13.23%.
ECB Has Narrow Window for Rate Hikes Before Economy Too Soft:
The European Central Bank will only have a narrow window to raise interest rates before the euro-area economy becomes too weak, given the recent Bloomberg survey of economists, as both economists and investors have pushed back their expectations for higher rates after a string of disappointing data. That meshes with global concerns that geopolitical disputes are hurting growth. The survey shows a loss in euro-area momentum, trade tensions and a disorderly Brexit as the biggest threats. Bloomberg
The Nigeria Equities Bourse was on a bullish run for the week ended, as the index appreciated by 3.94% for the trading week, while the YTD NSI stand at (0.21%). READ MORE
FCSL WEEKLY MARKET REPORT -11TH JANUARY, 2019
Value Added Tax (Q2 & Q3 2018) recorded 9.16% Year on Year Growth:
Given the Sectoral Value Added Tax Distribution report for Q2 & Q3, 2018, which indicated a quarter on quarter growth of 2.54%, from N266.73BN to N273.50bn, Year on Year Growth was 9.16%. The sectorial performance are as follows: Manufacturing Sectors was the highest contributor, which generated N31.48Bn followed by Professional Service that generated N25.57Bn and Commercial & Trading was next in the sequence, the sector generated N15.99Bn. The less contributing sector are in the following sequence: Pharmaceutical, Soap, & Toiletries, it contributed N52.70M, while Textile generated N177.34M and Automobiles & Assemblies generated N265.35M. According to income Classification, of the total amount generated for Q3, 2018, the sum of N128.62Bn was generated from Non-Import VAT Locally, while N58.84Bn was from Non-import VAT foreign, and the balance of N86.04Bn was generated from Nigeria Customs Service Import VAT.
FED'S POWELL AGAIN STRESSES PATIENCE AS U.S. ECONOMY'S 'NARRATIVE' UNFOLDS: READ MORE